Ukraines intensifying campaign against Putin’s oil industry is having a growing impact inside Russia, forcing one of the worlds largest energy producers to restrict diesel exports, pursue fuel imports and confront shortages stretching from occupied Crimea to cities deep in the country.
Inside Russia, the consequences are becoming increasingly visible. Former Russian opposition politician and commentator Maxim Katz said the shortages represent one of the first direct ways many Russians have experienced the consequences of the war â and could become particularly sensitive ahead of State Duma elections scheduled for September.
“This is the first time that Russians actually sees that the war has an effect on their day-to-day life â not only in the cost of fuel, but in its availability,” Katz told Fox News Digital in a Zoom interview from Israel, where he lives in exile. “You cannot buy it. And thats a big deal for Russia.”
Katz said elections in Russia are neither free nor competitive, but they still serve an important function for Putin by projecting public support to regional leaders, business figures and other members of the elite.
“If everybody sees in September that he has 20% support or 10% support, then questions begin about why he should appoint governors or control the system,” Katz said. “That is something he does not want to deal with.”
The fuel crisis, Katz argued, threatens Putins effort to portray himself as fully in control and to keep the cost of the war away from ordinary Russians.
“Putin tried to convince everybody that Moscow would continue to live its regular life and nobody would see the war,” Katz said. “It was his war, not the war of ordinary Russians. But when the war comes home, this is a completely different story, and it changes the equation.”
Katz also pointed to the striking reversal of Russia â historically one of the worlds largest exporters of oil and refined products â seeking fuel supplies from abroad. Reuters reported that Moscow had approached Kazakhstan about importing approximately 50,000 metric tons of gasoline after refinery outages reduced Russian gasoline output by roughly 25% from a year earlier.
The campaign reached a new milestone this week when Ukrainian drones struck the Omsk refinery, Russias largest, roughly 1,700 miles from Ukrainian-held territory. The facility temporarily halted processing after the attack, according to Reuters. Days later, another strike shut Russias Saratov refinery for the third time this year.
The expanding crisis raises a central question for Ukraine and its allies: Can attacks on the infrastructure that powers Russias military and economy alter President Vladimir Putins calculations â or will the Kremlin continue shielding its war effort while shifting the burden onto ordinary Russians?
“They have to buy fuel from Kazakhstan now,” Katz said. “Russia is one of the biggest exporters of oil and oil products and always has been. This is crazy.”
Still, Katz cautioned that the Kremlin would likely continue prioritizing military supplies even as civilian shortages worsened.
“He will find the fuel for the tanks. That is not the issue,” Katz said. “The issue is his grip on Russia.”
