Republicans have had their share of good and bad election nights this century, but theyve usually been able to count on the heartland.
Once evenly divided, rural voters have become substantially more Republican over the last two decades. Nearly two-thirds of these voters backed President Trump in the 2024 election.
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Today, just under half of rural theyll support the GOP again in November.
Like other groups, rural Americans are concerned about paying the bills. Nineteen percent said the rising cost of living is their biggest economic problem in a recent survey, with gas and energy costs not far behind.
The Trump administration has, in part, tried to counter those anxieties by talking about job growth and the AI boom, but rural voters are frustrated about those issues too.
Less than a quarter of rural voters say the economy is in good shape, and unemployment is a focal point: 8% called a lack of jobs and unemployment their biggest economic issue, and only 28% thought there were good or excellent job opportunities in their communities.
Data centers are part of the story too. Only 2% called it their biggest economic problem, but that number is larger than it seems. For 1 in 50 rural voters, data centers are a bigger problem than housing, the cost of living, or getting a job.
These factors have put the Republicans in a tough spot all over the map.
They are a reason why heartland states like Ohio and Iowa have been competitive most of the year and why more rural districts, including some that Trump won by double digits, are becoming margin-of-error races.
Even setting the polls aside, there are signs that the rural vote is on shakier footing. TV viewers in Wyoming will see ads this week for Republican candidate Chuck Gray that dont mention Trump or the GOP. Two years ago, Trump won 71.6% of the vote there â his best performance in any state, in any election.
Low rural turnout or party switching would make many races closer than the GOP would like, including in Florida, Mississippi and South Carolina.
Four states are worth singling out thanks to another complicating factor.
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This year, prominent independent candidates are running for Senate against a Republican in four rural-heavy states: Idaho, Montana, Nebraska and South Dakota.
They are pushing anti-establishment poli
